According to state BJP leader Sushil Modi, the party will use its MBC leaders, notably one Narendra Modi, to take on the JD (U) in its stronghold: the backward caste vote. "The JD (U)'s position is aimed at helping those who want to thwart a backward class leader's bid for the top post," he says. "Narendra Modi is a leader who has come up from a humble background." Kumar retorted: "Modi is closer to corporates than to backward classes even in his state (Gujarat)."
Even as the verbal jousting gains pitch, the split between the JD (U), which has 118 legislators, and the BJP has pulled the Kumar government out of its comfort zone. The doors of the chief minister's Anne Marg residence will now have to open for many hangers-on and whimsical legislators who will demand their pound of political flesh in exchange for their loyalty. Most of these MLAs are former socialists who are known to realign at the drop of a hat. This means that Kumar, who has so far maintained an impeccable image on issues of patronage, may come under pressure.
Pai says JD (U)'s success will depend on support from the Muslim community. Now that it has walked out of an alliance with the saffron party, JD (U) expects the Muslims—who comprise as high as 15% of the state's population, and have traditionally voted for RJD and Congress—to reward Kumar's new political positioning. "Maybe by increasingly veering towards the Congress, he (Kumar) is playing his cards well and is trying to warm up to Muslims as well. The recent political realignment hasn't made him a villain in the eyes of his vote base," she adds.
The JD (U) leader quoted above points to select granular details of the by-elections to the Lok Sabha seat of Maharajgang, which the RJD won. He says the bypoll, held on June 2 this year, 14 days before the JD (U)-BJP split, saw their party candidate secure, on an average, 40% of the total votes in 60 villages dominated by Muslims. Calling it a "major comforting factor", the JD (U) leader adds that this Muslim vote may have emboldened Kumar into snapping a 17-year relationship whose ideological underpinning sat uncomfortably his liberal socialist image.
The JD (U) is laying political premium on its government's track-record of maintaining communal harmony.
Kumar reopened the 1989 Bhagalpur communal riot cases—in which police forces were accused of an anti-Muslim bias—and made sure that those who had gone scot-free and were awarded with investitures by the previous RJD-led government were sent back to the gallows. "Kumar is nobody's fool," says a Bihar government official who has watched the socialist politician for decades and did not want to be named.
Lalu's Hopes
Meanwhile, Lalu Prasad's RJD, buoyed by the Maharajganj win, is hopeful of making a comeback by forging an alliance with the Congress party to crack the caste calculus. "We are optimistic the Congress will opt for the RJD for the electoral alliance," says Ram Kripal Yadav, member of Parliament and RJD's secretary-general. "We want the secular vote to remain in one political basket, unlike the previous elections, when both the RJD and Congress fought separately, splitting the secular vote. We have been supporting the Congress and we will back it in the future as well." He, however, declined comment on why the Congress has dumped the RJD for the JMM in Jharkhand for 2014.
The Congress party still hasn't disclosed its Bihar strategy. Several senior party leaders are leaning towards an alliance with the JD (U) as, they feel, that such an arrangement can thwart Modi's prime ministerial ambitions.
In the coming months, Kumar will have to settle on a consistent political message and ensure smooth governance in Bihar. For, a large section of the aspiring classes have voted for a government that provided a break from mis-governance and misery-mongering that characterised 15 years of Lalu's rule.
"Unfortunately, everything in this state, especially elections, like in many other Indian states, is decided by caste and caste alone," says a top JD (U) leader. "But remember, development is a palpable thing in Bihar...and let's not forget this is a state in transition— from brutal upper caste hegemony through to 'creamy layer' OBC domination to greater representation for all communities."
The BJP feels Narendra Modi's pitch—good governance, purposeful leadership and macho nationalism—will unsettle equations in the state. "There is a popular surge over the leadership of Modi," says BJP general secretary in charge of Bihar Dharmendra Pradhan. "Even if we accept the claim that the BJP will be a swing state in the next elections, political climate will favour us. Swing states almost always follow the overall trend.
And this overall trend is in favour of Modi." But even a politician as astute as Modi will have to solve the caste calculus that is Bihar.
Even as the verbal jousting gains pitch, the split between the JD (U), which has 118 legislators, and the BJP has pulled the Kumar government out of its comfort zone. The doors of the chief minister's Anne Marg residence will now have to open for many hangers-on and whimsical legislators who will demand their pound of political flesh in exchange for their loyalty. Most of these MLAs are former socialists who are known to realign at the drop of a hat. This means that Kumar, who has so far maintained an impeccable image on issues of patronage, may come under pressure.
Pai says JD (U)'s success will depend on support from the Muslim community. Now that it has walked out of an alliance with the saffron party, JD (U) expects the Muslims—who comprise as high as 15% of the state's population, and have traditionally voted for RJD and Congress—to reward Kumar's new political positioning. "Maybe by increasingly veering towards the Congress, he (Kumar) is playing his cards well and is trying to warm up to Muslims as well. The recent political realignment hasn't made him a villain in the eyes of his vote base," she adds.
The JD (U) leader quoted above points to select granular details of the by-elections to the Lok Sabha seat of Maharajgang, which the RJD won. He says the bypoll, held on June 2 this year, 14 days before the JD (U)-BJP split, saw their party candidate secure, on an average, 40% of the total votes in 60 villages dominated by Muslims. Calling it a "major comforting factor", the JD (U) leader adds that this Muslim vote may have emboldened Kumar into snapping a 17-year relationship whose ideological underpinning sat uncomfortably his liberal socialist image.
The JD (U) is laying political premium on its government's track-record of maintaining communal harmony.
Kumar reopened the 1989 Bhagalpur communal riot cases—in which police forces were accused of an anti-Muslim bias—and made sure that those who had gone scot-free and were awarded with investitures by the previous RJD-led government were sent back to the gallows. "Kumar is nobody's fool," says a Bihar government official who has watched the socialist politician for decades and did not want to be named.
Lalu's Hopes
Meanwhile, Lalu Prasad's RJD, buoyed by the Maharajganj win, is hopeful of making a comeback by forging an alliance with the Congress party to crack the caste calculus. "We are optimistic the Congress will opt for the RJD for the electoral alliance," says Ram Kripal Yadav, member of Parliament and RJD's secretary-general. "We want the secular vote to remain in one political basket, unlike the previous elections, when both the RJD and Congress fought separately, splitting the secular vote. We have been supporting the Congress and we will back it in the future as well." He, however, declined comment on why the Congress has dumped the RJD for the JMM in Jharkhand for 2014.
The Congress party still hasn't disclosed its Bihar strategy. Several senior party leaders are leaning towards an alliance with the JD (U) as, they feel, that such an arrangement can thwart Modi's prime ministerial ambitions.
In the coming months, Kumar will have to settle on a consistent political message and ensure smooth governance in Bihar. For, a large section of the aspiring classes have voted for a government that provided a break from mis-governance and misery-mongering that characterised 15 years of Lalu's rule.
"Unfortunately, everything in this state, especially elections, like in many other Indian states, is decided by caste and caste alone," says a top JD (U) leader. "But remember, development is a palpable thing in Bihar...and let's not forget this is a state in transition— from brutal upper caste hegemony through to 'creamy layer' OBC domination to greater representation for all communities."
The BJP feels Narendra Modi's pitch—good governance, purposeful leadership and macho nationalism—will unsettle equations in the state. "There is a popular surge over the leadership of Modi," says BJP general secretary in charge of Bihar Dharmendra Pradhan. "Even if we accept the claim that the BJP will be a swing state in the next elections, political climate will favour us. Swing states almost always follow the overall trend.
And this overall trend is in favour of Modi." But even a politician as astute as Modi will have to solve the caste calculus that is Bihar.
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